This policy, however, has not received much support due to the rising foreign exchange rate, increased operational challenges, and disruptions in the materials supply chains created by COVID-19. As a result, it has become vital to examine the country’s 2017 national climate strategy, its new economic recovery plan, and, in particular, the government’s commitment to handling the country’s mounting climate problems by rapidly expanding solar power.

Explaining the Global Warming Phenomenon

Global warming is the steady heating of the earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere. It is the increase in global average temperatures brought on by a variety of human activities. Because it disrupts the earth’s general ecology, global warming or climate change poses a hazard to human life on the planet. This is owing to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, which account for 82 percent of the gases in our atmosphere that trap heat, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Examples of greenhouse gases include methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and chlorofluorocarbons.

One major cause of global warming is cutting down forests (deforestation). Trees help regulate the climate by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This beneficial effect is lost when they are cut down and the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere. Another cause is the increase in livestock farming, resulting in the large amounts of methane (a greenhouse gas) to be released by cows and sheep when they digest their food. As these gases build up in the atmosphere the earth gets hotter leading to a rapid change in global warming.

Source: Global temperature record – updated January 2021

An introduction to Nigeria’s Climate Profile

With nearly 211 million people, Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country. Nigeria is situated in the Atlantic Ocean, between the Sahel to the north and the Gulf of Guinea to the south, and spans 923,769 square kilometers (356,669 square mile). Niger, Cameroon, and Benin all share land borders with it.

Nigeria has a wide range of weather conditions. The country has a mean annual temperature of 26.9°C, with average monthly temperatures ranging from 24°C (December, January) to 30°C (April). In Nigeria, rainfall occurs throughout the year, with the heaviest rainfall happening from April to October and the minimal rainfall occurring from November to March.

A tropical monsoon climate prevails in the south, a tropical savannah climate dominates in most of the central regions, and a Sahelian hot and semi-arid climate occurs in the north.

Source: World Bank

Impact of Global Warming on Nigeria’s Climate

Temperature rises, unpredictable rainfall, rising sea levels, flooding, drought,  desertification, land degradation, more frequent extreme weather events, impacted freshwater resources, and biodiversity loss are all indications that Nigeria’s climate is changing. Rainfall duration and intensity have increased, resulting in huge runoffs and flooding in several parts of Nigeria.

According to a survey, rainfall variation is projected to increase (Akande et al., 2017; Ebele and Emodi, 2016). In southern areas, rainfall is predicted to increase, and rising sea levels will worsen flooding and coastal land submersion. According to Dioha and Emodi’s investigations, Lake Chad and other lakes in the country are likewise drying up and evaporating (2018).

As a result, global warming may present a severe threat to Nigeria’s food security status. Higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, droughts, and deserts reduce farmland, lower agricultural productivity, and affect crop yields in Nigeria, where agriculture is the chief occupation and source of income for almost 70% of the population (Ogbuabor and Egwuchukwu, 2017).

Malnutrition caused by food shortages, the spread of infectious diseases, increased air pollution, and higher temperatures linked to an increase in cases of meningitis are some of the health implications associated with the threat of food security in Nigeria. 

Considering the significance of the agricultural sector to livelihoods and the economy, crop yield and productivity issues could have a negative impact on the country’s GDP. It is also likely to have a severe influence on Nigeria’s already constrained electrical power supply by affecting hydroelectric and thermal generation.

Communities suffer and face a surge in death rates as climate change becomes more frequent and intense. Experts concluded that if fossil fuels are burned continuously, the pace of loss could accelerate.

The Way Forward?

In light of this, the framework report for Nigeria’s National Adaptation Plan on Climate Change, which was produced in 2020, must be implemented in order to properly prepare for climate disasters caused by global warming. The Nigerian government should also invest more urgently in programs that safeguard homes from floods and fires, as well as programs that assist people to cope with heat stress (especially older individuals and those living in poverty).

Nigeria has to focus more on making its forests and farmlands more drought-resistant, as well as preparing its coasts for flooding. Furthermore, government incentives to academic institutions and manufacturing enterprises should be used to support the development and usage of fuel-efficient cars and other technologies to prevent energy waste.

These mitigation and adaptation strategies will aid in improving air quality and lowering greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Like most countries of the world, global warming in Nigeria is a crisis that can only be overcome by a concerted, proactive effort.

Written by Felicia Idajili

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Should inflation increase as projected by World Bank, Nigerians would pay more for foods and other commodities this year.

With increasing food prices and that of other commodities diminishing the livelihoods of many households, Nigeria’s inflation rate, according to the international financial body, is also projected to be the seventh-highest among Sub-Saharan African countries in 2022.

“In 2022, Nigeria is expected to have one of the highest inflation rates in the world and the seventh highest in Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Bank said in the November edition of its Nigeria Development Update.

According to the global financial institution, high inflation hampers the country’s attempt to achieve economic recovery and erodes the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households.

The document read in part, “High inflation is frustrating Nigeria’s economic recovery and eroding the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households. In the absence of measures to contain inflation, rising prices will continue to diminish the welfare of Nigerian households.”

How high inflation rate would affect Nigerians

Aside from increasing food prices, a high inflation rate as projected by the World Bank would mean that no less than eight million Nigerians would be pushed into poverty.

More so, there’s likely to be disruption of consumption, investment, and saving decisions, as the economy would become stiffening.

“If inflation had been closer to the CBN’s goal of nine percent in 2021, average Nigeria’s consumption would have been 15 percent higher, and eight million Nigerians would have not fallen into poverty.

“If double-digit inflation persists during 2022-2023, rising prices will distort consumption, investment, and saving decisions of the government, households, and firms, with adverse ramifications for long-term borrowing and lending.

“Over time, the disproportionate impact of inflation on lower-income households and those working in sectors with low savings (e.g, agriculture) will exacerbate inequality. Ultimately, inflation will not only negatively affect incomes but also economic productivity and job creation, further constraining the recovery,” World Bank explained.

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While highlighting the role of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it relates to forex stability, World Bank, in its November edition of its Nigeria Development Update, stated that the local currency is under pressure because of the apex bank’s constant increment of the exchange rate’s value.

World Bank argued that CBN is too rigid in its forex policies, and according to the international body, the rigidity is accelerating inflation in the country.

The report read: “The government’s exchange rate management policies continue to discourage investment and fuel inflation. Exchange rate stability is a key CBN policy objective, and to preserve its external reserves the CBN continues to manage FX demand and limit the supply of FX to the market.

“Pressure on the naira remains intense, and while the CBN has raised the nominal official exchange rate three times since the start of the pandemic (by 15 percent in March 2020, five percent in August 2020, and seven percent in May 2021), FX management remains too rigid to respond to external shocks. Meanwhile, exchange-rate management has emerged as one of the key drivers of inflation.”

Maintaining that the central bank is yet to introduce flexibility as it relates to responding to external shocks, World Bank stated that the NAFEX rate, which is the only officially acceptable one in the country, doesn’t represent the reality of the forex market.

“While the CBN supplied an average of $2.5bn to the Investors and Exporters forex window in the months just prior to the COVID-19 crisis, it only supplied an average of $0.5bn in the months thereafter.

“The NAFEX rate, which is now the guiding exchange rate for the economy, continues to be managed and is not fully reflective of market conditions. The parallel market premium over the NAFEX rate reached 29 percent in August 2021 after the CBN cut off its weekly supply of $20,000 per bureau de change. The CBN has intermittently supplied forex to BDCs since 2005, providing ample opportunities for currency round-tripping,” the report added.

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In an interview with Punch, Shubham Chaudhuri, the Country Director for Nigeria, World Bank, said even though the international financial institution aligned with the country’s apex bank on the need to achieve price stability as one of its core mandates, it doesn’t agree with it on method and choice of policies in achieving this.

“Nigeria, like many other countries, has gone through a very tough time, especially last year, with the price of oil falling, which had an immediate effect in terms of foreign currency inflows into the country because sales of crude oil are one of the biggest sources of foreign currency inflows into Nigeria.

“So, we recognise that in the middle of the economic crisis, Nigeria was under tremendous pressure, alongside the naira. One of the core mandates of CBN is price stabilisation. However, we differ with the CBN on how best this aim can be achieved,” Chaudhuri was quoted as saying.

According to Chaudhuri, the naira should be allowed to respond to real pressures, instead of the CBN trying to bottle up the pressures.

He said, “In the FX market, the way it works is to let the naira respond to very real pressures but in a way that let the steam off rather than bottle it. Because if you bottle it, the pressure does not get released, and at some points, there has to be a massive adjustment.

“Over the last year, the pressures have been building up. Finding ways to release some of the pressures by letting the naira adjust more gradually would help and keep the naira, in a long run, from depreciating by a very large amount.”

He, therefore, advised that having a more predictable, clear mechanism for the FX market would help in restoring and enhancing the confidence in the market.

The World Bank director said, “We haven’t had foreign portfolio investors come back to Nigeria since the COVID crisis, not at the levels that we saw earlier. Some of that has to do with what is happening to interest rates locally but some of that also has to do with their confidence – that if they do come into the market, they will be able to get the FX out again, repatriate their profits.

“What’s more concerning is foreign direct investors. FDI has not recovered. That also has to do partly with the level of confidence in terms of the ability to predictably access foreign exchange. While we understand and see what the CBN’s overall objectives are, we do differ on how those objectives might be obtained.”

How much is dollar to naira exchange rate today (Thursday, October 28, 2021)?

At the Investors & Exporters FX window ( I&E FX Window), where the currency officially trades, dollar to naira opened trading today (Thursday, October 28, 2021) at N414.13, as against N415.07 it traded the previous day (Wednesday, October 27).

How much is dollar to naira at the black market?

Sources at the black market in Lagos confirmed to Unmask NG that a dollar sold for N565.00 and bought for N570.

Please note that the CBN does not recognise the black market, as it strongly advised members of the public to only seek forex information from FMDQ Security Exchange, or approach their respective banks.

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